การวิเคราะห์เพื่อพยากรณ์ความต้องการใช้พลังงานไฟฟ้า ในเขตการไฟฟ้านครหลวง

• المؤلف الرئيسي: สุวิมล เกียรติบุญศรี
• مؤلفون آخرون: ชูศักดิ์ อุดมศรี
• التنسيق: Theses and Dissertations
• اللغة: Thai
• منشور في: จุฬาลงกรณ์มหาวิทยาลัย 1976
• الوصول للمادة أونلاين: https://digiverse.chula.ac.th/Info/item/dc:74870

An analysis of the electric energy demand for the purpose of forecasting which depend upon time only usually get unsatisfactory results, especially in the changing economic and social situation. This research, therefore, put the emphasis on the analysis of the relationship between electric energy demand and economic as well as social factors. The various data on electricity, economic and social condition within the Bangkok Metropolis (Bangkok-Thonburi), Nonthaburi, Smutprakan and Pathum Thani since 1963-1975 are collected in order to study how the structure of electric energy comsumption tends to change and which factors significantly influence the demand of each class of customers. Afterwards, the appropriate mathematical models representing the functional relationship between electric energy demand and those factors will be established by applying the Theory of Regression and Correlation, particularly the Stepwise Regression Procedure, of which a FORTRAN IV computer language program is written according to the computational method of Efroymson for the research. In addition, the electric energy requirement for the next six years (1976-1981) is forecasted by the estimated relationship. The outstanding results are that the electric energy demand of each class of customers is closely related to the Gross Provincial Products (GPP) and its different sectors with a considerably high correlation coefficient (R) in the form of Standard Linear Model. Therefore, it is evedent that the electric energy consumption within this area varies with the economic and social conditions all the time. Such outcome of the research will directly be useful to the improvement and expansion planning of the electric power distribution system, especially for planning in more accordant with the National Economic and Social Development Plan.