PREDIKSI JANGKA PANJANG ERUPSI GUNUNG MERAPI MENGGUNAKAN HYPOTHESIS TESTING DAN SURVIVAL ANALYSIS

• Main Authors: , FATAH YOGO YUDHANTI, , Drs. Imam Suyanto, M. Si.
• 格式: Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed
• 出版: [Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada 2014
• 主題: ETD
• 在線閱讀: https://repository.ugm.ac.id/129191/; http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=69569

Long-term forecasting of volcanic eruption is an effort to mitigate the volcanic hazard, especially in the volcano�s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. Long-term forecasting of Merapi Volcano�s consist of regimes identification, distribution pattern indentification in each regimes, and forecasting the time of first eruption after 2010�s eruption. The results of KS2test with significance level (α) 0,05 on interevent time of Merapi Volcano�s eruptions from 1768 until 2010 showed that old regime happened before 1878, and new regime has started from 1878 until 2010. Datas in each regimes then processed using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The AIC�s processing results showed that gamma and Weibull distributions are the most suitable patterns for Merapi�s old regime datas (AIC 95,75) and new regime datas (AIC 160,29). These differences are the results of eruptions mechanism�s change of Merapi Volcano from fountain-collapse-dominated eruptions to domecollapse- dominated eruptions. The application of Weibull fit on new regime datas of Merapi got intercept value 1,60, Weibull scale 4,97, and Weibull shape 2,65. These results then used to find the value of survival function, hazard rate, and probability of eruption during 2 - 18 years after 2010�s eruption. From those results, we can conclude that the first Merapi�s eruption after 2010�s is going to be happen between 2014 � 2016, and the characteristics are seem to be dominated by dome-collapse eruptions with 6 years is the longest interevent time.